US Open draw hands Carlos Alcaraz a tough first round

The men's draw

Carlos Alcaraz will begin the defence of his U.S. Open singles title against Roman Safiullin, according to bracket analysis published by The Athletic. The tournament, the last of the four Grand Slam events in tennis, starts on Sunday in New York City.

The Athletic reports that the U.S. Open will be Alcaraz's first tournament for four months, and that questions remain over his right wrist. Safiullin, a 29-year-old from Russia, was last seen at a Grand Slam beating Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca before troubling Novak Djokovic.

The Athletic's writers describe Safiullin's ferocious serve and attacking style as close to the worst possible opponent for a player returning from a long absence. Further on in the draw, Tommy Paul is in Alcaraz's section of eight, Ben Shelton is in his quarter and Djokovic is in his half.

Panel predictions

Sky Sports assembled a panel including Tim Henman, Laura Robson, Ryan Harrison, Naomi Broady and Martina Navratilova to pick winners and outsiders. The picks named were Alexander Zverev, Aryna Sabalenka, Arthur Fils, Alex Eala, Novak Djokovic and Coco Gauff.

One argument put to Sky Sports was that the men's event is more open because Jannik Sinner is absent and Alcaraz is returning from injury, and that Zverev has become more aggressive since winning his first Grand Slam title at the French Open. Fils was backed on the strength of winning the title in Cincinnati after reaching the quarter-finals there.

On the women's side, Sabalenka was picked despite what the panel called a patchy run of form, with the reasoning that she finds an extra gear at the majors. Gauff was picked to continue her recent form. The Athletic separately reports that Elena Rybakina's left Achilles could decide whether she plays at all.

Betting prices

Neither publication gives any betting odds, prices or sportsbook figures for the tournament. The predictions reported by Sky Sports are the personal picks of its panel, not market prices, and The Athletic's analysis is a read of the draw rather than a forecast with numbers attached.

How any bookmaker rates Alcaraz, Sabalenka, Zverev or Djokovic for this U.S. Open is therefore not known from these reports. Sky Sports says its coverage of the tournament begins on Sunday at 3pm on Sky Sports Tennis and Sky Sports+, with streaming on NOW and the Sky Sports app.